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March, 2017
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TodayYesterday
DateTimeCurrencyImpactDescription
Today
27 Mar
4:00PMEURHIGHGerman Ifo Business Climate
Source Ifo Institute for Economic Research (latest release)
Measures Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, around 3 weeks into the current month;
Next Release Apr 24, 2017Apr 24, 2017
FF Notes This survey is highly respected due to its large sample size and historic correlation with German and wider Eurozone economic conditions. It tends to create a hefty market impact upon release. Source changed series from a base year of 2000 to a base year of 2005 as of May 2011;
Why Traders
Care
It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment;
Derived Via Survey of about 7,000 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current business conditions and expectations for the next 6 months;
Acro Expand Information and Forschung (Ifo);
4:00PMEURMEDIUMM3 Money Supply y/y
Source European Central Bank (latest release)
Measures Change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 28 days after the month ends;
Next Release Apr 28, 2017Apr 28, 2017
FF Notes Source changed series calculation formula as of May 2001;
Why Traders
Care
It's positively correlated with interest rates - early in the economic cycle an increasing supply of money leads to additional spending and investment, and later in the cycle expanding money supply leads to inflation;
4:00PMEURLOWPrivate Loans y/y
Source European Central Bank (latest release)
Measures Change in the total value of new loans issued to consumers and businesses in the private sector;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 28 days after the month ends;
Next Release Apr 28, 2017Apr 28, 2017
Why Traders
Care
Borrowing and spending are positively correlated - consumers and businesses tend to seek credit when they are confident in their future financial position and feel comfortable spending money;
28 Mar1:15AMUSDMEDIUMFOMC Member Evans Speaks
Description Due to speak about the current economic conditions and monetary policy at the Global Interdependence Center, in Madrid. Audience questions expected;
Source Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (latest release)
Speaker Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans;
Usual Effect More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
Next Release Mar 29, 2017Mar 29, 2017
FF Notes FOMC voting member Sep 2007 - Dec 2007, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2015, and 2017;
Why Traders
Care
Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
Acro Expand Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);
6:00AMAUDMEDIUMRBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
Description Due to speak at the FX Week Australia conference, in Sydney;
Source Reserve Bank of Australia (latest release)
Speaker RBA Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Guy Debelle;
Usual Effect More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
Why Traders
Care
He's responsible for advising Reserve Bank Board members - who decide where to set the nation's key interest rates - on matters relating to economics, and his public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future policy shifts;
Acro Expand Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA);
6:30AMUSDMEDIUMFOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
Description Due to participate in a panel discussion titled "A Discussion of Economic Conditions and the Role of Monetary Policy," at Texas A&M University;
Source Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (latest release)
Speaker Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan;
Usual Effect More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
Next Release Mar 28, 2017Mar 28, 2017
FF Notes FOMC voting member 2017;
Why Traders
Care
Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
Acro Expand Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);
8:30PMUSDLOWGoods Trade Balance
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)
Measures Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release Apr 27, 2017Apr 27, 2017
FF Notes Trade in goods makes up about 75% of total trade, and therefore provides early insight into the Trade Balance data reported about 5 days later. A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported. Source first released in Jul 2015;
Why Traders
Care
Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers;
Also Called International Trade in Goods, Advance Trade In Goods;
8:30PMUSDLOWPrelim Wholesale Inventories m/m
Source Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures Change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers;
Usual Effect Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release Apr 27, 2017Apr 27, 2017
FF Notes There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart Preliminary and Final. The Preliminary release, which the source first reported in Aug 2016, is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact.
Why Traders
Care
It's a signal of future business spending because companies are more likely to purchase goods once they have depleted inventories;
9:00PMUSDLOWS&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
Source Standard & Poor's (latest release)
Measures Change in the selling price of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 60 days after the month ends;
Next Release Apr 25, 2017Apr 25, 2017
FF Notes This is one of the few non-seasonally adjusted numbers reported on the calendar, as it's the primary calculation for this indicator;
Why Traders
Care
It's a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity;
Also Called S&P Corelogic CS Indices;
Acro Expand Standard & Poor's (S&P), Case-Shiller (CS), House Price Index (HPI);
10:00PMUSDHIGHCB Consumer Confidence
Source The Conference Board Inc. (latest release)
Measures Level of a composite index based on surveyed households;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, on the last Tuesday of the current month;
Next Release Apr 25, 2017Apr 25, 2017
Why Traders
Care
Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Derived Via Survey of about 5,000 households which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions including labor availability, business conditions, and overall economic situation;
Acro Expand The Conference Board (CB);
10:00PMUSDLOWRichmond Manufacturing Index
Source Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (latest release)
Measures Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers in Richmond;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, on the fourth Tuesday of the current month;
Next Release Apr 25, 2017Apr 25, 2017
FF Notes Above 0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. Tends to have a muted impact because there are earlier regional indicators related to manufacturing conditions;
Derived Via Survey of about 100 manufacturers in the Richmond area which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including shipments, new orders, and employment;
Also Called Richmond Fed Index, Manufacturing Activity Index, Composite Manufacturing Index;
10:10PMCADHIGHBOC Gov Poloz Speaks
FF Alert Text of the speech due to be released 15 minutes earlier than the speaking time listed. Due to hold a press conference 65 minutes after the speaking time listed;
Description Due to speak at Durham College, in Oshawa;
Source Bank of Canada (latest release)
Speaker BOC Governor Stephen Poloz;
Usual Effect More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
FF Notes BOC Governor Jun 2013 - May 2020. Volatility is sometimes experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues;
Why Traders
Care
As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
Acro Expand Bank of Canada (BOC);
29 Mar1:00AMUSDMEDIUMFOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
Description Due to speak at the Committee of Foreign Relations, in Dallas;
Source Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (latest release)
Speaker Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan;
Usual Effect More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
Next Release Mar 30, 2017Mar 30, 2017
FF Notes FOMC voting member 2017;
Why Traders
Care
Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
Acro Expand Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);

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