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September, 2018
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DateTimeCurrencyImpactDescription
Today
26 Sep
9:00AM NZD HIGHANZ Business Confidence
Source ANZ (latest release)
Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, retailers, agricultural firms, and service providers;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, excluding January, around the end of the current month;
Next Release Oct 30, 2018Oct 30, 2018
FF Notes Above 0.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism;
Why Traders
Care
It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment;
Derived Via Survey of about 1,500 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative 12-month economic outlook;
1:00PM JPY LOWBOJ Core CPI y/y
Source Bank of Japan (latest release)
Measures Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, usually on the last Friday of the following month;
Next Release Oct 26, 2018Oct 26, 2018
FF Notes Food and energy prices account for about a quarter of CPI, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The BOJ usually pays the more attention to the Core data - so do traders. There's a revised version of this indicator released about 5 days later, but it's not included for lack of significance. Source first released in Nov 2015;
Why Traders
Care
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;
Also Called CPI Ex Food and Energy, Underlying CPI;
Acro Expand Consumer Price Index (CPI), Bank of Japan (BOJ);
4:00PM CHF LOWCredit Suisse Economic Expectations
Source Credit Suisse (latest release)
Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed institutional investors and analysts;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, around about 26 days after the month ends;
Next Release Oct 24, 2018Oct 24, 2018
FF Notes Above 0.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism;
Why Traders
Care
It's a leading indicator of economic health - investors and analysts are highly informed by virtue of their job, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity;
Derived Via Survey of about 30 institutional investors and analysts which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for Switzerland;
Also Called CFA/CS Economic Expectations;
Acro Expand Credit Suisse (CS), Chartered Financial Analysts (CFA);
4:30PM GBP LOWHigh Street Lending
Source UK Finance (latest release)
Measures Number of new mortgages approved for home purchase by High Street banks during the previous month;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 24 days after the month ends;
Next Release Oct 25, 2018Oct 25, 2018
FF Notes High Street banks make up around 65% of total UK mortgage lending;
Why Traders
Care
It's a leading indicator of housing market demand most home purchases are financed with a mortgage, so it provides an excellent gauge of how many qualified buyers are entering the market;
Also Called Gross Mortgage Approvals;
6:00PM GBP LOWCBI Realized Sales
Source Confederation of British Industry (latest release)
Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed retailers and wholesalers;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, around the end of the current month;
Next Release Oct 25, 2018Oct 25, 2018
FF Notes Above 0 indicates higher sales volume, below indicates lower. Source changed series calculation formula as of July 2009;
Why Traders
Care
It's a leading indicator of consumer spending because retailer and wholesaler sales are directly influenced by consumer buying levels;
Derived Via Survey of about 125 retail and wholesale companies which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current sales volume;
Also Called Distributive Trades Survey;
Acro Expand Confederation of British Industry (CBI);
9:00PM CHF LOWSNB Quarterly Bulletin
Source Swiss National Bank (latest release)
Usual Effect More hawkish than expected is good for currency;
Frequency Released quarterly;
Next Release Dec 19, 2018Dec 19, 2018
FF Notes Tends to have a mild impact because much of the information is released 2 weeks earlier in the Monetary Policy Assessment;
Acro Expand Swiss National Bank (SNB);
9:00PM CNY LOWCB Leading Index m/m
Source The Conference Board Inc. (latest release)
Measures Change in the level of a composite index based on 8 economic indicators;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 15 days after the month ends;
Next Release Oct 25, 2018Oct 25, 2018
FF Notes This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy, but it tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously. Source first released in May 2010;
Derived Via Combined reading of 8 economic indicators related to consumer expectations, export orders, industry profitability, logistics index, total loans issued, construction started, labour demand and imports of capital goods;
Also Called Leading Indicators;
Acro Expand The Conference Board (CB);
10:00PM USD LOWNew Home Sales
Source Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures Annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 25 days after the month ends;
Next Release Oct 24, 2018Oct 24, 2018
FF Notes While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12);
Why Traders
Care
It's a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a new home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, furniture and appliances are purchased for the home, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called New Residential Sales;
10:30PM USD HIGHCrude Oil Inventories
Source Energy Information Administration (latest release)
Measures Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week;
Usual Effect No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications;
Frequency Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends;
Next Release Oct 3, 2018Oct 3, 2018
FF Notes While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector;
Why Traders
Care
It's the primary gauge of supply and demand imbalances in the market, which can lead to changes in production levels and price volatility;
Also Called Crude Stocks, Crude Levels;
Acro Expand Energy Information Administration (EIA);
27 Sep2:00AM USD HIGHFOMC Economic Projections
Source Federal Reserve (latest release)
Usual Effect More hawkish than expected is good for currency;
Frequency Scheduled 4 times per year;
Next Release Dec 19, 2018Dec 19, 2018
FF Notes This report includes the FOMC's projection for inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years and, more importantly, a breakdown of individual FOMC member's interest rate forecasts. Source first released in Apr 2011;
Why Traders
Care
It's the primary tool the Fed uses to communicate their economic and monetary projections to investors;
Acro Expand Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);
2:00AM USD HIGHFOMC Statement
Source Federal Reserve (latest release)
Usual Effect More hawkish than expected is good for currency;
Frequency Scheduled 8 times per year;
Next Release Nov 8, 2018Nov 8, 2018
FF Notes The FOMC usually changes the statement slightly at each release. It's these changes that traders focus on;
Why Traders
Care
It's the primary tool the FOMC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their vote on interest rates and other policy measures, along with commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their votes. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes;
Also Called Interest Rate Statement, Fed Statement, Monetary Policy Statement;
Acro Expand Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);
2:00AM USD HIGHFederal Funds Rate
Source Federal Reserve (latest release)
Measures Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Scheduled 8 times per year;
Next Release Nov 8, 2018Nov 8, 2018
FF Notes The rate decision is usually priced into the market, so it tends to be overshadowed by the FOMC Statement, which is focused on the future;
Why Traders
Care
Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future;
Derived Via FOMC members vote on where to set the target rate. The individual votes are published in the FOMC statement;
Also Called Interest Rates, Fed Funds Rate;
Acro Expand Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);
2:30AM USD HIGHFOMC Press Conference
Source Federal Reserve (latest release)
Speaker Federal Reserve Chair;
Usual Effect More hawkish than expected is good for currency;
Frequency Scheduled 4 times per year;
Next Release Dec 19, 2018Dec 19, 2018
FF Notes The press conference is about an hour long and has 2 parts - first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press questions. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create heavy market volatility. The press conference is webcasted on the Fed's Ustream channel in real-time. Source first conducted in Apr 2011;
Why Traders
Care
It's among the primary methods the Fed uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate and other policy decisions, along with commentary about economic conditions such as the future growth outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues regarding future monetary policy;
Also Called Chair's Press Briefing;
Acro Expand Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Federal Reserve (Fed);
5:00AM NZD HIGHOfficial Cash Rate
Source Reserve Bank of New Zealand (latest release)
Measures Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Scheduled 8 times per year;
Next Release Nov 7, 2018Nov 7, 2018
FF Notes The rate decision is usually priced into the market, so it tends to be overshadowed by the RBNZ Rate Statement, which is focused on the future;
Why Traders
Care
Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future;
Derived Via The RBNZ Governor decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers;
Also Called Interest Rates, OCR;
Acro Expand Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), Official Cash Rate (OCR);
5:00AM NZD HIGHRBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Source Reserve Bank of New Zealand (latest release)
Usual Effect More hawkish than expected is good for currency;
Frequency Released quarterly;
FF Notes In this report the RBNZ is mandated to include details on how they will achieve their inflation targets, how they propose to formulate and implement monetary policy during the next five years, and how monetary policy has been implemented since the last statement's release;
Why Traders
Care
It provides valuable insight into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation - the key factors that will shape the future of monetary policy and influence their interest rate decisions;
Acro Expand Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ);
5:00AM NZD HIGHRBNZ Rate Statement
Source Reserve Bank of New Zealand (latest release)
Usual Effect More hawkish than expected is good for currency;
Frequency Scheduled 8 times per year;
Next Release Nov 7, 2018Nov 7, 2018
Why Traders
Care
It's among the primary tools the RBNZ uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions;
Also Called Policy Assessment, Interest Rate Statement;
6:00AM NZD HIGHRBNZ Press Conference
Source Reserve Bank of New Zealand (latest release)
Speaker RBNZ Governor;
Usual Effect More hawkish than expected is good for currency;
Frequency Scheduled quarterly, at every other Official Cash Rate announcement;
FF Notes The press conference is about 30 minutes long and has 2 parts - first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press questions. The questions sometimes lead to unscripted answers that create heavy market volatility. The press conference is webcasted on the RBNZ website real-time;
Why Traders
Care
It's among the primary tools the RBNZ uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate decision, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues regarding future monetary policy;
Also Called Monetary Policy Statement Media Conference;
2:00PM EUR LOWGerman GfK Consumer Climate
Source GfK (latest release)
Measures Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, around the end of the current month;
Next Release Oct 25, 2018Oct 25, 2018
Why Traders
Care
Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Derived Via Survey of about 2,000 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions, including personal financial situation, climate for major purchases, and overall economic situation;
4:00PM EUR MEDIUMM3 Money Supply y/y
Source European Central Bank (latest release)
Measures Change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 28 days after the month ends;
Next Release Oct 24, 2018Oct 24, 2018
FF Notes Source changed series calculation formula as of May 2001;
Why Traders
Care
It's positively correlated with interest rates - early in the economic cycle an increasing supply of money leads to additional spending and investment, and later in the cycle expanding money supply leads to inflation;
4:00PM EUR LOWECB Economic Bulletin
Source European Central Bank (latest release)
Usual Effect More hawkish than expected is good for currency;
Frequency 8 times per year, 2 weeks after the Minimum Bid Rate is announced;
Next Release Nov 8, 2018Nov 8, 2018
FF Notes Tends to have a muted impact because some parts of the bulletin are released early. Source first released in Feb 2015;
Why Traders
Care
It reveals the statistical data that the ECB Governing Board evaluated when making the latest interest rate decision, and provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank's viewpoint;
Acro Expand European Central Bank (ECB);
4:00PM EUR LOWPrivate Loans y/y
Source European Central Bank (latest release)
Measures Change in the total value of new loans issued to consumers and businesses in the private sector;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 28 days after the month ends;
Next Release Oct 24, 2018Oct 24, 2018
Why Traders
Care
Borrowing and spending are positively correlated - consumers and businesses tend to seek credit when they are confident in their future financial position and feel comfortable spending money;
8:30PM USD HIGHCore Durable Goods Orders m/m
Source Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 26 days after the month ends;
Next Release Oct 25, 2018Oct 25, 2018
FF Notes Orders for aircraft are volatile and can severely distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of purchase order trends;
Why Traders
Care
It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders;
Also Called Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation;
8:30PM USD HIGHFinal GDP q/q
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)
Measures Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released quarterly, about 85 days after the quarter ends;
Next Release Dec 21, 2018Dec 21, 2018
FF Notes While this is q/q data, it's reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart - Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders
Care
It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health;
Acro Expand Gross Domestic Product (GDP);
8:30PM USD MEDIUMDurable Goods Orders m/m
Source Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 26 days after the month ends;
Next Release Oct 25, 2018Oct 25, 2018
FF Notes This data is usually revised via the Factory Orders report released about a week later. Durable goods are defined as hard products having a life expectancy of more than 3 years, such as automobiles, computers, appliances, and airplanes;
Why Traders
Care
It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders;
8:30PM USD LOWFinal GDP Price Index q/q
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)
Measures Annualized change in the price of all goods and services included in GDP;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released quarterly, about 85 days after the quarter ends;
Next Release Dec 21, 2018Dec 21, 2018
FF Notes While this is q/q data, it's reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected;
Also Called GDP Deflator;
Acro Expand Gross Domestic Product (GDP);
8:30PM USD LOWGoods Trade Balance
Source Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release Oct 25, 2018Oct 25, 2018
FF Notes Trade in goods makes up about 75% of total trade, and therefore provides early insight into the Trade Balance data reported about 5 days later. A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported. Source first released in Jul 2015;
Why Traders
Care
Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers;
Also Called International Trade in Goods, Advance Trade In Goods;
8:30PM USD LOWPrelim Wholesale Inventories m/m
Source Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures Change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers;
Usual Effect 'Actual' less than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release Oct 25, 2018Oct 25, 2018
FF Notes There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart Preliminary and Final. The Preliminary release, which the source first reported in Aug 2016, is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact.
Why Traders
Care
It's a signal of future business spending because companies are more likely to purchase goods once they have depleted inventories;
8:30PM USD LOWUnemployment Claims
Source Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect 'Actual' less than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release Oct 4, 2018Oct 4, 2018
FF Notes This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders
Care
Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy;
Also Called Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;
9:30PM EUR HIGHECB President Draghi Speaks
Description Due to deliver opening remarks at the European Systemic Risk Board annual conference, in Frankfurt;
Source European Central Bank (latest release)
Speaker ECB President Mario Draghi;
Usual Effect More hawkish than expected is good for currency;
FF Notes ECB President Nov 2011 - Nov 2019. Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues;
Why Traders
Care
As head of the ECB, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the euro's value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
Acro Expand European Central Bank (ECB);
10:00PM USD LOWPending Home Sales m/m
Source National Association of Realtors (latest release)
Measures Change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 28 days after the month ends;
Next Release Oct 25, 2018Oct 25, 2018
FF Notes This data is released about a week later than Existing Home Sales, but it's more forward-looking as a contract is signed several weeks before the home is counted as sold;
Why Traders
Care
It's a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called Pending Resales;
10:30PM USD LOWNatural Gas Storage
Source Energy Information Administration (latest release)
Measures Change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week;
Usual Effect No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications;
Frequency Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release Oct 4, 2018Oct 4, 2018
FF Notes Inventories are used to maintain price stability during supply shortages and periods of increasing demand;
Also Called Nat Gas Stocks, Nat Gas Inventories, Working Gas;
Acro Expand Energy Information Administration (EIA);
28 Sep4:30AM USD HIGHFed Chair Powell Speaks
Description Due to speak at Senator Reed's Rhode Island Business Leaders Day, in Washington DC;
Source Federal Reserve (latest release)
Speaker Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell;
Usual Effect More hawkish than expected is good for currency;
FF Notes Fed Chair Feb 2018 - Feb 2022. Fed Governor May 2012 - Jan 2028. Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues;
Why Traders
Care
As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
Acro Expand Federal Reserve (Fed);
5:45AM CAD HIGHBOC Gov Poloz Speaks
FF Alert The text of the speech is due at the release time listed. The speech is scheduled for delivery 15 minutes later;
Description Due to speak about digital technologies at the Atlantic Provinces Economic Council dinner. Audience questions expected;
Source Bank of Canada (latest release)
Speaker BOC Governor Stephen Poloz;
Usual Effect More hawkish than expected is good for currency;
FF Notes BOC Governor Jun 2013 - May 2020. Volatility is sometimes experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues;
Why Traders
Care
As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
Acro Expand Bank of Canada (BOC);
6:45AM NZD LOWBuilding Consents m/m
Source Statistics New Zealand (latest release)
Measures Change in the number of new building approvals issued;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release Oct 29, 2018Oct 29, 2018
Why Traders
Care
It's a leading gauge of future construction activity because obtaining government approval is among the first steps in constructing a new building. Construction is important because it produces a wide-reaching ripple effect - for example, jobs are created for the construction workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired, and various construction services are purchased by the builder;
Also Called Building Permits;
7:01AM GBP LOWGfK Consumer Confidence
Source GfK NOP (latest release)
Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, usually on the last business day of the current month;
Next Release Oct 30, 2018Oct 30, 2018
FF Notes Above 0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism;
Why Traders
Care
Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Derived Via Survey of about 2,000 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions including personal financial situation, climate for major purchases, and overall economic situation;
Also Called GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Barometer;
7:30AM JPY LOWTokyo Core CPI y/y
Source Statistics Bureau (latest release)
Measures Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers in Tokyo, excluding fresh food;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, usually on the last Friday of the current month;
Next Release Oct 25, 2018Oct 25, 2018
FF Notes Tokyo is Japan's most populated city and releases CPI data a month ahead of National CPI. This early data is thought to be the most important consumer inflation release. The impact tends to be mild but varies from month to month;
Why Traders
Care
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to tighten monetary policy out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;
Also Called Tokyo CPI Ex Fresh Food;
Acro Expand Consumer Price Index (CPI);
7:30AM JPY LOWUnemployment Rate
Source Statistics Bureau (latest release)
Measures Percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month;
Usual Effect 'Actual' less than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release Oct 30, 2018Oct 30, 2018
FF Notes Tends to have a muted impact relative to employment data from other countries because the Japanese economy is more reliant on the industrial sector than personal spending;
Also Called Jobless Rate;
7:50AM JPY LOWBOJ Summary of Opinions
Source Bank of Japan (latest release)
Usual Effect More hawkish than expected is good for currency;
Frequency Scheduled 8 times per year, about 10 days after the Monetary Policy Statement is released;
Next Release Nov 7, 2018Nov 7, 2018
FF Notes This report includes the BOJ's projection for inflation and economic growth. Source first released in Feb 2016;
Why Traders
Care
It's the primary tool the BOJ uses to communicate their economic and monetary projections to investors;
Acro Expand Bank of Japan (BOJ);
7:50AM JPY LOWPrelim Industrial Production m/m
Source METI (latest release)
Measures Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release Oct 30, 2018Oct 30, 2018
FF Notes There are 2 versions of this indicator released about 15 days apart - Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders
Care
It's a leading indicator of economic health - production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings;
7:50AM JPY LOWRetail Sales y/y
Source METI (latest release)
Measures Change in the total value of sales at the retail level;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 27 days after the month ends;
Next Release Oct 29, 2018Oct 29, 2018
Why Traders
Care
It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity;
Also Called Retail Trade;
9:30AM AUD LOWPrivate Sector Credit m/m
Source Reserve Bank of Australia (latest release)
Measures Change in the total value of new credit issued to consumers and businesses;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, on the last business day of the following month;
Next Release Oct 30, 2018Oct 30, 2018
Why Traders
Care
Borrowing and spending are positively correlated - consumers and businesses tend to seek credit when they are confident in their future financial position and feel comfortable spending money;
9:45AM CNY LOWCaixin Manufacturing PMI
Source Markit (latest release)
Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry;
Usual Effect 'Actual' greater than 'Forecast' is good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, usually on the first business day after the month ends;
Next Release Oct 31, 2018Oct 31, 2018
FF Notes Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. There were 2 versions of this report between Feb 2011 and Sep 2015, Flash and Final. The 'Previous' listed between that period is the 'Actual' from the Flash release and therefore the 'History' data appears unconnected;
Why Traders
Care
It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy;
Derived Via Survey of about 430 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;
Acro Expand Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);

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